“Everybody is dealing with understanding the economy and how to forecast forward, and there’s a very high degree of uncertainty, because there are so many factors at play,” Copeland told Insurance Business.

He pointed to Canada’s sluggish economy as a key concern. “We have low GDP growth and we are very much at risk of falling into a recession,” he said. “At the same time, we have a soft insurance market that’s driving a vicious cycle as players chase growth from a shrinking pie.”

Copeland said he does not want to predict the depth or duration of the downturn, given the many unknowns, but he stressed that companies need to prepare for leaner conditions. “I think that we have to prepare for thinner margins and a tougher sales environment, and I don’t see it turning around until underwriting losses … refocus carrier priorities,” he said.